04.03.24 - 08.03.24
Results of the previous week
| VIX+7.48 | XAUUSD +2.90% | CORN+1.34% |
NG -6.05% | WHEAT -4.79% | USDJPY -2.46% |
US indices continue to consolidate around previously reached highs. They're not finding enough reason for further growth. Even the fact that the head of the US Federal Reserve confirmed in his speech that the regulator is committed to starting rate cuts this year didn't provide significant support to the indices. Markets have been waiting for a clearer timeline for the start of monetary easing. Unfortunately, the Fed chairman didn't provide this information.
At the same time, the dollar declined after Powell's speech. The US currency is becoming less attractive amid expectations that rate cuts will begin. Gold also took advantage of this, hitting an all-time high. Some currencies had their own reasons to rise, as well. For example, the pound rose on news that the construction PMI data showed that the sector was almost out of stagnation. The Australian dollar rose on positive news out of China.
Brent crude oil prices briefly attempted to rise above $83 per barrel. However, prices failed to consolidate at these levels. Pressure on the energy resource came from fears of lower demand from China, which is the world's largest oil importer, as well as mixed signals on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Unemployment figures | DATE 12.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's unemployment rate has been falling for the past five months. This is good news for the economy because, on the one hand, a drop in unemployment reduces the burden on the nation's budget. On the other hand, it increases consumer activity, which is important for the health of the UK's service-centric economy. Signs that the economy is stabilising will allow the Bank of England to keep its interest rate at the current high level for quite some time. In addition, signs of improvement in a key sector are good news for the British pound. In such a scenario, GBP/USD will continue moving toward 1,2820. | |||||
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 12.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The inflation rate in the United States remains higher than the Fed's target rate. At the same time, in his last speech, the head of the Federal Reserve made it clear that plans to cut the key interest rate this year remain in force. He also confirmed that they won't wait for inflation to fall to the target level to start easing monetary policy. The Fed just wants to make sure that the trend of easing inflation is stable. Thus, keeping inflation at the current level will reinforce expectations that the rate-cut cycle will start soon. That's bad news for the US dollar. Against this backdrop, gold (XAU/USD) may continue to move towards $2,200.00 per troy ounce. | |||||
The US. Retail sales | DATE 14.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption is very important for any economy. The retail sales indicator essentially reflects people's willingness to buy and, therefore, their confidence in the future. The index collapsed sharply a month earlier, showing a 0.8% decline. However, global analysts expect that the situation will stabilise and the indicator will rise during the reporting period, contributing to GDP's positive movement. This is good news for the economy and the US dollar. However, the dollar's rise is traditionally bad news for its opponents. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD may roll back to around 1.0800. | |||||
![A Surprise from the Bank of Japan [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_1590824863_10.jpg?itok=A1Pu4pUd)
